WMO Warns El Niño Could Return by May as Global Extreme Weather Risks Rise

According to the WMO’s latest report, a clear warming trend has been observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño could return as early as May to July this year, potentially leading to more extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

TAIPEI, TAIWAN (MERXWIRE) – As global warming continues to intensify, the latest meteorological observations have raised fresh alarms. According to a new climate alert issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño—one of the key factors influencing global climate stability—could redevelop between May and July 2026. If it does, global climate conditions may once again experience significant disruptions.

Observational data shows that from mid-October 2024 to early 2025, the equatorial Pacific has experienced a noticeable warming trend, with the area of elevated sea surface temperatures gradually expanding. This pattern is commonly seen as a precursor to El Niño. Experts note that if the warm waters continue to accumulate and spread eastward, they could alter global atmospheric circulation, triggering stark contrasts such as severe flooding in some regions and prolonged drought in others.

Looking at historical climate records, global average temperatures in 2024 rose by approximately 1.55°C, making it the hottest year on record. Climate experts warn that if a strong El Niño develops again this year, extreme heat could intensify further, placing additional strain on global food production, water resource management, and disaster response systems—particularly in tropical and subtropical agricultural regions.

In terms of long-term climate trends, a recent analysis by Berkeley Earth in the United States found that 2025 ranked as the third warmest year since systematic records began in 1850, following 2024 and 2023. The study, which integrates over 23 million temperature records from weather stations and around 500 million ocean observations, shows that global warming is not a short-term fluctuation but a long-term trend driven primarily by rising greenhouse gas concentrations.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, added that global average temperatures in March this year were about 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the fourth-highest on record. Sea surface temperatures also reached the second-highest level, indicating that the oceans continue to absorb and release vast amounts of heat. Analysts believe this background is gradually pushing the climate system toward El Niño conditions.

Based on multiple observations and studies, experts widely agree that the global climate has entered a highly unstable phase. If El Niño forms again, it will not merely be a single-year event but could amplify the existing warming trend, placing long-term pressure on global societies, economies, and disaster preparedness systems. As climate change continues to intensify, whether this year will set new temperature records has become a key concern for meteorological and policy authorities worldwide.